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Investors are now tasked with trying to understand where bond yields go next, and what the drivers of those yields would be. Forget about the technical charts, he says — they are not driving the bond market right now. While Fed policy has consequences for the bond market, investors drive the yield, Johnson said. That means trying to predict where bond yields will settle will be very hard. But fear in the stock market could translate to greed in the bond market as investors flee to safety.
Persons: Paul Ciana, Gordon Johnson, , Johnson, Ed Yardeni, Kevin Zhao, Liz Truss, Ray Dalio, Fitch, Eric Leve, Michael Gayed, there's, Russell, Leve, hasn't Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Bank of America, GLJ Research, UBS Asset Management, CNBC, Greenwich Economic, Tidal Financial, P Bank ETF, BlackRock Locations: Bridgewater, Greenwich
US10Y 5D mountain 10-year yield this week The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached the 5% milestone late Thursday, raising questions of how long it will stay elevated and what the effect will be on stocks. "This is the last leg of the upmove" from the 2020 low, when 10-year yields touched 0.31%, he said. Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton also pinned 5.25% as the next resistance level for the 10-year bond yield. Meanwhile, Piper Sandler's chief market technician Craig Robinson also said the 10-year yield is due for a pullback. Ciana, on the other hand, estimates the 10-year yield likely staying above 5% for a while.
Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Paul Ciana, Elliott, Ciana, Katie Stockton, Piper, Craig Robinson, Robinson Organizations: Treasury, Atlanta, RBC, Wolfe Research, Bank of America Locations: Stockton
The U.S. dollar crossed another key milestone after the Federal Reserve reiterated its commitment to higher rates, and that could create pressure elsewhere in the global economy. The dollar index hit its highest level since March 9 on Thursday, pushing its 50-day moving average above its 200-day counterpart. That milestone for the moving averages is known as a "golden cross," which typically leads to the dollar climbing further in the coming months, according to Bank of America. The latest leg higher for the dollar appears to be related to the Federal Reserve. A stronger dollar could be bad news for the global economy, where some countries have been struggling relative to the U.S. already.
Persons: Paul Ciana, Ciana, — CNBC's Gina Francolla Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Locations: U.S
A golden cross is when the 50-day moving average breaks above the 200-day moving average. Some chart analysts think the 200-day moving average needs to be ascending for it to count as a "golden cross." "On August 24th a golden cross occurred. One way for investors to gain exposure to the move in oil prices is through exchange-traded funds that buy oil futures contracts, such as the United States Oil Fund (USO) . There are also leveraged funds such as the Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (UCO) that are riskier bets but could generate big returns if the oil market rally does continue.
Persons: Paul Ciana, Ciana, Chris Verrone, Verrone, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Texas, Energy, Saudi Press Agency, United States Oil Fund, Ultra Bloomberg, Oil Locations: Saudi Arabia
It's taken gold prices a long time to get this high — 5,000 years, give or take a few centuries — and it looks like the yellow metal could keep climbing. "Gold prices have benefited in recent weeks from safe haven demand amid concerns on the banking sector, as well as a view that the likelihood of a recession (i.e., hard landing) have materially increased. "Lower rates, coupled with inflation still well above the 2% target, would be positive for gold prices," he added. @GC.1 YTD line Gold price this year Tariq expects gold to average $1,925 an ounce in the second quarter, a 10% increase from Credit Suisse's previous target. Roque has a price target at $2,322, implying 14% upside from here.
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